As the geopolitical landscape fluctuates, including the recent halt of hostilities between Iran and Israel, safe-haven assets such as gold and silver have responded with a decline in prices. This unexpected shift has led many traders to question whether the trend for gold is now firmly in a bear market. This week’s XAUUSD forecast analyses key levels for traders to consider, specifically between June 30th and July 4th, 2025.
This week presents significant economic reports from the U.S. that are expected to affect XAUUSD. Traders should closely observe the following scheduled events:
- July 1: Fed Chair Powell’s speech, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS Job Openings.
- July 2: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
- July 3: Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and ISM Services PMI.
Powell’s decisions and insights are likely to stir volatility, influencing gold profoundly. Hawkish rhetoric may discourage investment in gold, while dovish sentiments could weaken the U.S. dollar, allowing gold to gain some footing.
The performance of gold towards the end of June solidifies essential insights for July. Notably, the price swept the highs of May 2025. Currently, the key levels traders should focus on are:
- Resistance: $3301-3313 and $3320-3337
- Support: $3232-$3202
Traders are advised to view the $3320-3337 zone as an optimal point for shorting gold since it aligns with significant fib levels and previous price action.
For those involved in trading gold, a mix of buying and selling strategies may prove effective this week. While the lower time frames hint at potential sell opportunities, higher time frames reveal bullish tendencies that could provide favorable buy positions. This balanced approach allows traders to adapt as market conditions evolve.
In summary, bear sentiment towards gold may dominate this week, but cautious buying near established support levels could yield opportunities. As always, traders should employ strict risk management practices to navigate these uncertain waters.
