In light of recent developments surrounding the escalating trade tariffs imposed by the United States, financial experts are predicting a significant capital flight toward cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has suggested that China’s reaction to these tariffs could rekindle interest in the crypto market, priming it for a potential bull run. He remarked, “If not the Fed, then the PBOC will give us the Yahtzee ingredients,” emphasizing the duality of pressure between national financial institutions.
If the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) opts to devalue its currency, the yuan, this could create a narrative where wealthy Chinese citizens move their capital into Bitcoin as a safeguard against insufficient governmental fiscal strategies. Hayes noted that “it worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025,” highlighting a historical precedent for such movements in the crypto space. Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, echoed this sentiment, noting that sharply devalued yuans typically lead to bullish trends for Bitcoin.
This connection between currency depreciation and Bitcoin investment is not without historical backing. Notably, the yuan saw a significant decline of nearly 2% in a single day back in August 2015—an event that incited increased interest in Bitcoin, although the precise factors behind this relationship remain debated among analysts. Significant drops below the 7:1 ratio against the US dollar in August 2019 also resulted in corresponding spikes in Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that investors sought out crypto as a hedge during turbulent financial times.
Beyond simple investment trends, there is a deeper societal motivation at play. Many wealthy Chinese citizens have historically utilized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to preserve their wealth from government overreach and capital controls. These devaluations in currency often breed distrust in centralized financial systems, further nudging the populace towards decentralized alternatives. As such, Bitcoin’s allure as a stable investment could provide a refuge against the volatility of Chinese monetary policy.
As tensions continue to rise between the US and China, with promises of escalated tariffs from the US administration, the response from China—met with resistance and countermeasures—is likely to shape the economic landscape in profound ways. Analysts are watching closely as the PBOC considers its next moves, aware that any devaluation might not only affect local dynamics, but also trigger a wave of investment in Bitcoin, marking yet another pivotal moment for the crypto community.
