In recent days, Bitcoin (BTC) has displayed promising signs of recovery, particularly in its spot trading. As markets react to significant shifts in liquidity, analysts are watching closely for a possible breakout that could propel the price to an impressive $119,000. However, to truly confirm a trend reversal, BTC must close above $113,650.
The latest data from on-chain analytics reveals a stark divergence between Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), indicating stronger buyer support for BTC. The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric shows a concentrated accumulation of Bitcoin, with transaction densities highlighting buyer conviction. This accumulation often leads to more sustainable price movements, contrasting with the relatively weak flows observed in ETH trading.
Exchange activity further reinforces the bullish thesis. For instance, spikes in netflow from both Coinbase and Binance suggest a significant liquidity regime shift. Coinbase witnessed a notable netflow increase from August 25 to 31, coinciding with its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) reaching a multi-year low. Historical trends indicate that such reversals may signify the onset of reaccumulation phases, paving the way for future price rallies.
On the technical front, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience in recent trading sessions. After dipping to $107,300, it rebounded sharply, exceeding $109,900 during peak trading hours. The four-hour chart shows a bullish structure, particularly with the relative strength index (RSI) returning above 50, indicating growing bullish sentiment. For the positive momentum to persist, Bitcoin needs to breach immediate resistance levels between $112,500 and $113,650. A decisive close over $113,650 would not only confirm a bullish trend but could also unlock key liquidity targets around $116,300, $117,500, and potentially reaching $119,500.
However, traders should remain vigilant as September historically carries a bearish sentiment in the market. Should Bitcoin fail to sustain momentum above the critical $113,650 level, it may face a pullback towards the $100,000 mark. Therefore, while the signs are optimistic, caution is advised.
