Bitcoin’s futures market has recently shown signs of cooling after enduring several weeks of price correction. Analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that the leverage ratio for BTC-USDT futures has significantly decreased, halving since its peak at the beginning of 2025. This considerable de-leveraging trend is attributed to substantial liquidations in recent times, effectively removing a majority of traders from the market.
With Bitcoin’s open interest dropping by 28% from $71.8 billion on December 18 to $51.8 billion on April 8, it highlights the scope of this current deleveraging event. Although this scenario could lead to short-term volatility due to fewer market players influencing the price, it serves as a reset for a healthier market, ultimately positioning Bitcoin (BTC) for enhanced stability in the long run.
Adding to this analysis, Bitcoin’s projected values have sparked significant discussion among analysts. Sina, the co-founder of a prominent investment firm, shared insights through his Bitcoin Quantile Model, suggesting that Bitcoin has nearly completed 75-80% of its price correction. The cryptocurrency has fallen from an all-time high of $109,000 to approximately $74,500, a downturn that historically accompanies declines of up to 34% within a typical six to eight-week timeframe.
While Bitcoin currently sits at a 31% reduction from its peak, the potential worst-case scenario might slide down to $70,000, according to analyst estimates. Despite a somewhat grim macroeconomic backdrop and the chance for more sell-offs, Bitcoin is perceived as significantly undervalued, particularly for long-term investors. The analyst emphasized, “Absent a recession, $70K is my worst-case scenario.”
Looking ahead, the chances of an immediate recovery appear slim. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. commented that Bitcoin might witness sideways movement within a defined price range, dubbed the “volatility corridor,” between $75,000 and $96,000. He noted that sustaining a price above the 365-day simple moving average is crucial; a breach below this vital indicator could potentially drag Bitcoin to a new yearly low beneath the $74,500 mark.
Multiple market factors highlight the complexities of Bitcoin’s trajectory, but current analyses provide a silver lining suggesting stability after turbulent times. Investors need to remain vigilant, aware of the risks, and ready for potential changes in market dynamics as they navigate the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
