Bitcoin price has recently been trading in a narrow range, hovering between the crucial levels of $84,000 and $82,000. Analysts believe that historical trends coupled with current on-chain metrics suggest that a significant breakout could be looming. After a substantial correction, Bitcoin’s price action is beginning to mirror the patterns observed in June 2021, which raises intriguing possibilities for the cryptocurrency’s future.
Rekt Capital, a prominent analyst, highlighted a crucial point in their analysis on March 18, 2025. They noted that, following a severe decline, Bitcoin consolidated its price between the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). This identical scenario is now playing out, with many optimistic that history could indeed repeat itself. The anticipation of a breakout is heightened by the fact that during similar consolidations in the past, Bitcoin has often rallied to new all-time highs post-decline.
Currently, the selling pressure on Bitcoin appears to be diminishing. Recent sell-offs have occurred at lower-than-average volumes, suggesting that sellers may be losing their grip and allowing buyers to take the lead. A bulking period for buyers often leads to strong uptrends, which could set the stage for any potential breakout. The shift in market dynamics indicates a possible transition from seller dominance to a more buyer-favoring environment, encouraging a more bullish sentiment among investors.
Moreover, the analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is undergoing a deleveraging phase. This phase is characterized by the removal of excess leverage from the market, historically setting the stage for short to medium-term buying opportunities. The metrics pointing towards deleveraging suggest a reset of market dynamics which could benefit early investors and affirm that Bitcoin often rebounds strongly after such resets. Furthermore, the increasing number of coins in the 3-6 month UTXO age bands suggests that investors are opting to hold onto their Bitcoin rather than selling. This behavior aligns closely with patterns seen during previous market corrections and tends to culminate in price rallies.
Despite these positive indicators, we must acknowledge the increasing outflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, which have experienced five consecutive weeks of withdrawals—the longest in history. This trend indicates a degree of short-term uncertainty. Nevertheless, analysts remain hopeful that if the selling pressure continues to decline and accumulation increases, Bitcoin might be on the cusp of a significant price movement. As historical trends suggest, if these patterns hold true, a breakout could occur sooner than we expect.
