79-89% Chance of TikTok Ban in the U.S.: Insights from Prediction Markets

New predictions and political maneuvers have emerged regarding the future of TikTok in the United States. Cryptocurrency prediction markets, particularly on leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, are showing strong odds that TikTok will face a ban in the U.S. by May 2025. Currently, Polymarket estimates a 79% chance of a ban, while Kalshi raises the stakes to 89%. This surge in predictions reflects growing concerns and uncertainties surrounding the app, owned by ByteDance.

These markets operate similarly to stock exchanges, allowing users to purchase contracts based on real-world outcomes. In this context, traders who wager that TikTok will “be banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans” before the deadline of April 30, 2025, stand to gain from their investments. The increased trading volume—reaching $5.6 million on Polymarket and $2.23 million on Kalshi—indicates a significant market conviction that a ban is indeed likely.

Recently, legislative developments have intertwined with these markets. An upcoming law expected to take effect soon has prompted President Biden to announce that he won’t enact it on his final day in office, leaving the door open for the Trump administration to potentially extend the ban for another 90 days starting Monday. The implications of this law are significant, as Trump has made remarks regarding his consideration of TikTok’s future.

In a twist, TikTok’s potential ban has garnered the attention of various public figures, including popular YouTuber MrBeast, who expressed interest in acquiring the platform to avert its shutdown. His assertion, backed by claims of outreach from billionaires, raises questions about the viability of such a transaction. Other prominent investors, including “Shark Tank” host Kevin O’Leary and former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, are also rumored to be exploring opportunities to buy TikTok’s U.S. operations.

As discussions around the ban continue, Trump’s recent communications with Chinese officials, particularly Chairman Xi Jinping, highlight the geopolitical implications of the TikTok controversy. Trump hinted at future decisions on the platform’s status, stating, “My decision on TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation.” This combination of market speculation, political maneuvering, and public interest creates a complex landscape for TikTok’s future in the United States.

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